42 posts tagged “red sox”
Now that all the playoff teams have been decided, it's time for my annual statistical explanation of why the Red Sox will win the World Series. Before you call me a "wicked hom-ah", remember that I've been right 50% of the time and the Sox were only 1 game away from the Series last year.
Anyway, as I've done for the last two years, once again I've compiled the three statistics that correlate with success in the playoffs, and once again, the results are desirable. (See my correct 2007 prediction here, and my somewhat less correct 2008 prediction here.)
So, here goes:
Team Fielding
The Red Sox started slowly but picked up in the 2nd half, partly by acquiring the guy who should have won a Gold Glove for us a few years ago, Alex Gonzalez. (Nice job on that one, Theo.)
Twins .987, Phillies .987, Angels .986, Red Sox .986, Rockies .986, Dodgers .986, Cardinals .985, Yankees .985
Team Strikeouts-per-9 innings
Even without Matsuzaka for most of the year, the Sox were one of the leaders in K/9 behind Lester, Beckett, and a bullpen full of power arms.
Yankees 7.82, Dodgers 7.77, Red Sox 7.71, Rockies 7.22, Phillies 7.13, Angels 6.61, Cardinals 6.55, Twins 6.52
Closer ERA
Hopefully, Theo Epstein knows this is one of the three important stats and won't dump the amazing closer he has (Papelbon) for a cheaper closer-of-the-future (Bard) when his contract is up in two years. Supposedly, Papelbon had a bad year this year. Uh-huh, right.
Yankees (Rivera) 1.76, Red Sox (Papelbon) 1.85, Cardinals (Franklin) 1.92, Twins (Nathan) 2.15, Dodgers (Broxton) 2.61, Rockies (Street) 3.06, Phillies (Madson) 3.26, Angles (Fuentes) 3.93
OK, 8 pts for first, 1 for last, add them all up and here's what you get:
Red Sox, 18 pts; Yankees, 17; Dodgers, 14; Twins, 14; Phillies, 14; Rockies, 12; Angels, 10; Cardinals, 10
Red Sox over Yankees in ALCS, Dodgers over Phillies in NLCS
Red Sox over Dodgers in World Series
(Note: last year, I looked at just the last month of the season to see if any team was hot in these 3 stats and, sure enough, it was the Phillies who came in hot and then won the World Series. So, if we look at just the last month, how do things change? The Red Sox, thanks to hot fielding in the last month and a consistent Papelbon, still win the World Series, but instead it would be a rematch with the Rockies. Which, honestly, wouldn't be that fun, so go Dodgers.)
A sad day (that realistically should've been called a week or two ago). I'm throwing in the towel on the AL East division. The Yankees are pretty much unstoppable and now they lead the division by 8-1/2 games. Their magic number to win the division is down to 19 with 26 games to play. (If they only go 13-13 the rest of the way, we would have to go 22-5 to catch them and guess what, there's no way they're only going 13-13.)
I've been tracking our magic number since it was around 150, but now I've had to make the transition to the magic number for the Red Sox to win the wild card. We're up by 2 games, which is basically nothing, but we're a better team than the Rangers and I'm still pretty confident we'll beat them.
The big question is: how will we beat the Yankees in the ALCS?
Look at those headline-writing skills. Sometimes I think I should've been a beat writer...
The Red Sox won again today, their 14th win in their last 19 games and 4th straight series win, and the Yankees lost again. Now we have a 4 game lead and the magic number is down to 90. Our bullpen has the best ERA in baseball and our starters, especially Beckett and Lester, are looking great lately.
Of course, the best news from Boston this month has been the return to form of David Ortiz. Even though most people thought he was done forever, he's come back with some big numbers in June. In April, he hit .230 with no homers. In May, he hit .143 with 1 home run. In June so far, Ortiz is hitting .308 with 5 home runs.
By my calculations, if Ortiz keeps hitting as well as he has this month for the rest of the season, he'll finish the season at: .269 AVG, 31HR, 90RBI, .894 OPS
Not Ortiz' best numbers, but very respectable, and if he does that and our pitchers stay healthy, we probably win the division.
Congrats to Terry Francona again for sticking with his guy and letting him get himself out of the slump.
Go Big Papi!
Let's hope he goes on a tear starting tonight. Loved this picture on the Globe web site.
Some tidbits about the red-hot Red Sox, winners of 10 in a row...
- This is the longest win streak for the Sox since June, 2006, which I remember well, because it happened just as I headed out on JoshTrek and listened to every game on my XM radio in the car as I headed across the country.
- The Sox went from 2-6 to 12-6 and there are now only 3 teams in baseball with better records (the best is only 1 game better at 14-6.) During the streak, the team is leading baseball in batting average, on base average, and slugging percentage. Which means we're scoring a ton of runs: 8 runs per game, also best in baseball.
- Mike Lowell (our #7 hitter, by the way) was named American League Player of the Week for last week. And have I mentioned how he's even a better human being than he is a baseball player? He has a 10-game hitting streak now.
- Jacoby Ellsbury stole home yesterday. And did you know he still hasn't made a single error? Ever. In his whole career.
- It was clear that our bullpen was going to be a strength this season, with new guys Saito and Ramirez added to Papelbon, Okajima, Masterson, Delcarmen and Lopez. Well, guess what? They have the best ERA in the majors, at 2.41. (Ramon Ramirez has thrown 11 innings so far and hasn't given up a run yet.)
- Kevin Youkilis is no longer just Greek God of Walks. Now he's god of hits and extra-base hits, too. He's leading the majors in batting, on base, and slugging. He's hitting .439, best April batting average in Sox history if he can keep it up for 3 more days. (Of course, the leader until this year has been Ted Williams, who hit .422 in 1957 (at age 38, no less.))
- Ortiz started slowly, but he's batting over .300 in a 6-game hit streak he's got going now.
Rather than write it all down again, I remind you of last year's post, describing the 3 other times we had come back from a 2 or more game deficit in a playoff series in the last decade. It is now 4 times, since the Red Sox beat the Indians 3 in a row last year and won the Series, as you know. No reason they can't do it yet again.
Now that the Chicago White Sox have stamped the final ticket into the baseball playoffs, I can make my predictions. Before you go crying 'homer', let me remind you that these predictions are entirely statistically based. And let me further remind you that last year, I predicted the winner correctly using this same method.
So, without further ado, the analysis:
There are 3 statistics that correlate with success in the playoffs: Team Fielding Pct, Team Pitching K/9 innings, and Closer ERA.
The playoff teams, in order by fielding pct, are: Red Sox (.986), Angels (.985), Rays (.985), Phillies (.985), Dodgers (.984), Brewers (.984), Cubs (.983), White Sox (.983).
In order by team K/9: Cubs (7.84), Dodgers (7.49), Red Sox (7.37), White Sox (7.08), Rays (7.06), Angels (6.86), Brewers (6.86), Phillies (6.71).
In order by closer ERA: Phillies (Lidge - 1.95), Angels (Rodriguez - 2.24), Red Sox (Papelbon - 2.34), Dodgers (Saito - 2.49), White Sox (Jenks - 2.63), Cubs (Wood - 3.26), Brewers (Torres - 3.49), Rays (Percival - 4.53)
Giving teams 8 points for 1st place, down to 1 point for 8th place, the totals are:
1. Red Sox (20)
2. Angels (17)
3. Dodgers (16)
4. Phillies (14)
5. Cubs (13)
6. Rays (12)
7. White Sox (9)
8. Brewers (7)
Prediction: Red Sox win it all, but this time I think it'll be 5 games over the Angels, then a sweep of the Rays in the ALCS (sweet revenge!) and a sweep of the Dodgers in the World Series.
Oh, yeah. Congrats to the Celtics for doing it, too.
